Who Would the Knicks Protect in an NBA Expansion Draft?
Expansion is expected to hit the NBA in the near future. Commissioner Adam Silver has not committed to it, and the Association has yet to announce.
But most in and around the league believe that with franchise valuations skyrocketing, expansion is inevitable. And they also believe it’ll come in the form of two additional franchises.
The “when” of it all remains debatable. That lends itself to plenty of uncertainty. Will an announcement come this summer? And if so, does that mean expansion will hit for the 2027-28 season? Or will it be later than that?
If you’re someone who invests in futures, this could be among your NBA best bets, because, as MyTopSportsbooks explains, payouts on predicted outcomes so far in advance can be quite lucrative. Just know that, in this case, you’re up against a variety of factors and unknowns.
Still, this got us thinking: For argument’s sake? Let’s say expansion hits the NBA in advance of next season.
Who would the New York Knicks protect from being available in the draft?
How NBA Expansion Drafts Work
For anyone who may not know, the Association holds an expansion draft every time it adds a franchise. Existing teams can protect up to eight players apiece. This means they would be off-limits to any expansion squads in the draft.
Now, the players you protect must be under contract for the upcoming season. Right now, the Knicks have eight guaranteed players on their 2026-27 books: Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Deuce McBride, Pacome Dadiet, and Tyler Kolek. Jose Alvarado also holds a player option. For our purposes, we’ll assume he picks it up.
On top of that, we are also going to operate under the assumption that Mitchell Robinson and Landry Shamet both sign new deals. They are unrestricted free agents, but the Knicks have the ability to keep them. So, we’ll plan as if they re-sign. On top of that, New York is also currently slated to have the No. 25 and No. 34 picks in the 2026 draft. (It also has No. 56, but those players are seldom signed to guaranteed deals.) We will add those selections to the fold as well.
With that in mind, this is the pool of Knicks players on the table: Brunson, KAT, Anunoby, Bridges, Hart, McBride, Dadiet, Kolek, Robinson, Shamet, No. 26, and No. 34.
New York would be allowed to protect eight of these players.
Which eight should the front office choose? Let’s take a stab at guessing.
Tier 1
- Jalen Brunson
This is it. That’s the end of the list.
Brunson is not the only non-negotiable player, but he’s by far and away the most important one. As an MVP candidate, he exists in a tier all his own on the court. So we’re giving him his own tier in this exercise.
Tier 2
- OG Anunoby
- Mikal Bridges
Anunoby might be a hair overpaid relative to his offensive limitations. Paying over 25 percent of the salary cap for someone who can’t consistently generate his own shot is steep.
Even so, he is among the most credible five-position defenders in the game. There is no replacing him. If the Knicks leave him unprotected, he’s being scooped up.
Bridges is a more interesting case study. Fans and media alike see their impressions of him fluctuate. He is maddeningly inconsistent at both ends of the floor. Ultimately, though, his four-year, $150 million extension is an asset. If the Knicks don’t want to keep him long term, they’re better off trading for assets rather than risking the possibility that they lose him for nothing to an expansion franchise.
Tier 3
- Karl-Anthony Towns
- Deuce McBride
- Jose Alvarado
Okay, now we are taking into account the dollars and cents of it all.
Neither McBride nor Alvarado is a star. There is also a ton of positional overlap and deficit redundancies between them. It doesn’t matter.
Each of them is under contract next season for under 3 percent of the salary cap. A team like the Knicks needs all the playable bargains they can get.
Rounding out Tier 3 is difficult. In the end, not choosing Towns would be a sham. Though his time in New York is punctuated by extreme peaks and even more volatile valleys, he remains an offensive anomaly as a stretchy seven-footer with the ability to take off the dribble.
Paying him close to 35 percent of the salary cap isn’t ideal, but the Knicks don’t have the means to replace him. Perhaps they’d roll the dice and leave him unprotected if it was just a one-team expansion draft. In that instance, they could believe the new squad wouldn’t want to pay his contract, so he wouldn’t be selected. This would let him keep Towns (in theory) while protecting someone else.
We can’t play that game here. Two expansion squads increase variability in outcomes.
Tier 4
- No. 25 pick
This is going to shock plenty of people. Many will be expecting to see Hart, Robinson, or even Shamet. We can’t get there.
Whomever the Knicks select in the first round will be on a team-friendly deal for at least four years. The same cannot be said for Shamet and Robinson, who are up for new contracts this summer. And while Hart is often the heart and soul of the team, he’s not exactly a bargain at $20-plus-million per year.
This isn’t necessarily about choosing a first-round prospect over more entrenched names. It’s an attempt to game the process. Who is an expansion team that’s just starting out more likely to select: an early-20-something prospect on an ultra-cheap contract, or an expensive veteran who isn’t a star?
Rolling with the first-round pick is an admittance that the expansion team, in all likelihood, won’t select Hart, Robinson, or Shamet.
That’s a gamble. But it’s a small one.
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