Why the Yankees Should Stay Away From Nolan Arenado
The New York Yankees have spent most of this offseason making a series of moves to recover from losing Juan Soto to the New York Mets.
However, the most pressing question remains in the infield, specifically at second or third base.
The Yankees could enter the season with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza in the other positions. However, it still seems likely that they will make an addition before the start of the season. Due to Chisholm’s versatility in both spots, players who play second or third are options.
The biggest name out there is still Alex Bregman. Still, barring a change, it appears that the Yankees will stay away from him due to the longevity of his projected contract and the draft and international free agency penalties that would come with his signing.
The other big name is third baseman Nolan Arenado, available in a trade due to the St. Louis Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll.
The Cardinals may retain a significant portion of the money remaining on the three years of his current contract, but even if they are willing to do so, the Yankees should tread cautiously.
To get the obvious part out of the way, Arenado is a declining player who will be 34 next season. He has put up wRC+ marks of 106 and 102 in the last two seasons after a mark of 149 in 2022, according to FanGraphs. He is still a strong defender, so there is some value left if he is able to sustain league-average offense. However, taking on three years of him is risky, as there are significant red flags.
PHOTO: D. Ross Cameron/Imagn Images
The first one is that Arenado has been dealing with back issues over the past two seasons, directly coinciding with his offensive decline. The Yankees just had Anthony Rizzo, who had back problems throughout his tenure. Beyond that, there are statistical red flags with Arenado’s offensive trajectory and his fit in Yankee Stadium.
The first place to look is at Arenado’s Zone Percentage in 2024, which was 50.7%, according to FanGraphs. That is significantly higher than the previous three seasons, at 47.9% in 2023, 47.6% in 2022, and 48.7% in 2021. These numbers tell us that pitchers challenged Arenado in the zone more than in previous years, signaling that opponents are not as afraid of him offensively as they were in his prime.
According to Eno Sarris of The Athletic and FanGraphs, an increase in pitches seen in the zone for players over 30 can coincide with an offensive decline. In this regard, there is not much to indicate that the arrow is pointing up for Arenado offensively at this point in his career.
Beyond that, even Arenado, in his peak form, is not a great fit for Yankee Stadium, notorious for hurting right-handed hitters’ power numbers. Arenado has 272 home runs in his career, and according to Baseball Savant, he would have 219 home runs if he had played every game in Yankee Stadium. That is a staggering drop-off, and although he would be playing half of his games in Yankee Stadium and not all of them, he would still be significantly hurt by playing that amount of games in the Bronx.
When taking all of these factors into account, Arenado is not a fit for the Yankees.
There was speculation that he might be willing to waive his no-trade clause to come to New York after his former Cardinals teammate, Goldschmidt, signed with the team. However, YES Network’s Jack Curry firmly said that the Yankees are not interested in the third baseman.
There is no prominent name to fill the second or third base hole for the Yankees, but it appears that Arenado is not in the cards, barring some unforeseen change.
PHOTO: D. Ross Cameron/Imagn Images
Discover more from New York Sports Nation
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
