Would Walker Buehler Be a Smart Bet for the Yankees in 2025?
It is no secret that the New York Yankees’ priority this offseason is re-signing Juan Soto, but if they can do that, some smaller moves will likely follow.
The team has been linked to an interesting potential buy-low starting pitcher in Walker Buehler.
Early in the offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the Yankees and Buehler have “some” mutual interest.
If the Yankees cannot re-sign Soto, it would be logical to assume that they would look at more expensive pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. However, if Soto is back, Buehler could fit into the budget.
MLB Trade Rumors predict Buehler to sign a one-year, $15 million contract this offseason.
The Yankees should be able to fit something like that into their budget after likely giving Soto $45-50 million in average annual value.
PHOTO: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images
When looking at Buehler’s recent history, one might question why the Yankees would be interested. He was last at full strength in 2021, struggled a bit in 2022 before having Tommy John surgery that kept him out until May 2024 and struggled mightily this past season, pitching to a 5.38 ERA, according to FanGraphs. Velocity was not the issue either, as Buehler’s fastball averaged 95 mph, which was basically the same as when he was a Cy Young contender. So what was the problem? It was the movement he lost on his pitches.
The two pitches to focus on are the four-seam fastball, specifically when it comes to the horizontal break. In 2022, Buehler had 5.9 inches of horizontal movement on his fastball, as opposed to 4.3 inches in 2024, according to Baseball Savant. That was the pitch that hitters had the most success against, as they had a .452 xwOBA against it in 2024, as opposed to .330 in 2021, his last dominant season.
In the 2024 postseason with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Buehler showed some signs of regaining his prior form. Unfortunately, he showcased that in Game 3 of the World Series against the Yankees and Game 5 when he closed out the series.
Buehler’s fastball had more life in the postseason, and not only that, he showed signs of increased break on other pitches throughout October.
For example, his sweeper was in peak form in Game 3 of the NLCS against the New York Mets.
There is some hope that in 2025, Buehler will finally be fully healthy again. Even if he does not regain his peak form from his days with the Dodgers, he could be in for a resurgent year.
Does this mean that it is a guarantee that it will work out? Absolutely not.
However, smart organizations take calculated risks like this. Take the Mets, for example, a season ago with Sean Manaea and former Yankee Luis Severino.
The Yankees have a solid rotation on paper with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, and Marcus Stroman, but you can never have too much pitching. Cortes dealt with an elbow injury last offseason, so it is tough to bet on him being healthy the whole season. Cole and Schmidt missed significant time, while Gil missed some as well, and Rodon has missed a considerable amount of games in his career. New York could also look to offload Stroman’s salary this offseason as well.
It would be wise for the Yankees to make some kind of starting pitching addition this offseason, and Buehler could be a relatively low-risk, high-reward move.
PHOTO: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images
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